ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Indian Stock MarketSubscribe to Indian Stock Market

COVID-19-related Uncertainty, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns in India

The Indian stock market witnessed a sharp recovery in the post-COVID-19 period owing to the sweeping investor enthusiasm. The event studies show that the 2020 lockdown and announcement of the first fiscal package had a significant impact on the stock returns. The impact of other events like the first COVID-19 case, second fiscal package, beginning of the vaccination drive, and the second wave was insignificant. Our estimates also show a significant impact of investor sentiment on stock returns, except during periods of extreme volatility. Further, the stock returns are positively related to oil price and negatively related to the exchange rate. 

Is There a Bubble in the Indian Stock Market?

The recent surge in stock prices in India sparked off a debate on a possible bubble in the Indian stock market. The attempt here is to detect and date stamp bubbles present, if any, in the Indian stock market using a recursive econometric technique. This technique can help identify bubbles as they emerge, not just after they have exploded. This study does not indicate any explosive price behaviour in the Indian stock market. Thereby, the presence of any bubbles during the study period is not detected. The sharp decline and the subsequent recovery of the stock prices during the past 15 months was most probably an overreaction to the pandemic.

 

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