Indian Economy

Growth has consistently remained a central topic in economic policy considerations of the government in India. However, there has also been a more scholarly interest in it among social scientists. As a part of the latter tradition, this paper addresses the proper delineation of the phases of growth in India, a matter of some discussion in the literature. Using state-of-the-art statistical methodology, it first establishes the trajectory of growth and then provides a theoretical explanation for that history. With data spanning the period 1950–2020, the procedure adopted is also able to assess the impact on economic growth of the policies of the present government. The results are conclusive. First, it is established that growth in India has accelerated continuously since the 1950s, implying that dynamism in the economy did not have to wait for the liberalising reforms launched in 1991. Next, the performance of India’s economy is compared to growth that has taken place in the rest of the world. It is seen that while India’s economy has, in recent years, shown a dynamism relative to the rest of the world, it has consistently fallen behind its most dynamic regions, notably in East Asia.

The share of resources distributed in the stimulus package to the farmers and labourers is very less as compared to other stakeholders of the economy. As public policy is influenced by bargaining power through intense lobbying, low distribution of resources towards farmers and labourers could be due to their low bargaining power. Collective action is required to bargain or lobby for resources. The farmers are adversely placed with regard to collective action because the transaction cost of organising collective action is higher but their ability to bear the cost is lower. The industry is placed in a much better position on both these counts. The inability of farmers to provide critical minimum resources for collective action may further weaken their bargaining position.

Regulation in India: Design, Capacity, Performance edited by Devesh Kapur and Madhav Khosla, New Delhi: Hart Publishing, 2019; pp 448, ₹ 602 (paperback).

Although growing at rates that are globally enviable, the Indian economy has been unstable over the last several years. False dawns, shifting time series, and the selective use of data has provided fodder for scoring political brownie points. Citing near-term data, the Economic Survey 2017–18 argues that the Indian economy is on the path of recovery even as it raises some red flags. What does a comprehensive appraisal of the data show? Is this “recovery” sustainable or is this yet another case of a dead cat bounce?