ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Narrative of the Golden Hindu Period

Individuals associated with Sangh Parivar often cite Angus Maddison to support their narrative that India’s economic past was that of a golden bird. However, this is mere cherry-picking, and when looked at in its entirety, Maddison’s findings about India’s past are not that flattering. They show that
the golden Hindu period is a mere fantasy.

Assessing the Financial Health of the Indian Corporate Sector

The long-term trend in the financial soundness of the Indian corporate sector is examined using balance sheet information and the most stressed sectors are identified. A corporate vulnerability index is constructed using financial indicators which captures various dimensions of stress in the Indian corporate sector. The study reveals that corporate debt vulnerabilities increased in the aftermath of the global financial crisis with a notable reversal after 2016. The sectoral analysis identified that there has been a significant improvement in debt-to-GDP ratio and debt at risk, notably after 2016, even as sectoral idiosyncrasies remain. While the earlier impact of COVID-19 was reckoned to be severe, the corporate sector showed an impressive rebound, albeit uneven.

The Role of Informality in Moderating the Impact of Adverse Macroeconomic Shocks

In the presence of informality, adverse demand shocks have a lower impact on aggregate output and adverse supply shocks have a lower impact on prices as well as output. Both would imply that countries without a substantial informal sector, largely more affluent nations, would be more exposed to higher prices following such shocks. This is consistent with contemporary evidence of stagflation in developed countries. Being the residual sector, the informal sector inevitably moves in the opposite direction to the formal sector during a bad shock episode, cushioning its aggregate effect. We then show that the argument goes through if the firms have to finance their working capital requirements by borrowing
from the market.

Criticality of Climate Finance

Mitigation and adaptation with positive synergies can effectively lead to low-carbon pathways.

Sickness within the Public Health System

A spate of hospital deaths in Nanded is an outcome of a crippled public health system due to multiple deficiencies.

Waning Business Confidence

Only a substantial step-up in savings and investments can ensure sustained growth.

An Introduction and Overview

The fiscal consolidation effort of the union government reinforces the fact that a sustained reduction in debt and deficit at the union level is critical for a fast improvement in the general government fiscal balance. As the economic growth has improved, a medium-term debt path for a targeted reduction of debt ratio would help sustain the gains achieved in 2022–23.

Investment Behaviour in India

Most of the investment slowdown debates have been around aggregate investment but disaggregate investment institution- and assets-wise may respond heterogeneously with respect to the macroprudential policy measures. The present study explores the investment dynamics at disaggregate level for 2004–19 in the wake of changing economic environment characterised by active utilisation of monetary and fiscal policies, varying monetary transmission effect, economic uncertainty, business environment, and financial pressures either by credit shortfall or debt overhang.

An Investigation into the Selected Non-banking Financial Companies in India

The non-banking financial companies play a critical part in credit intermediation in India, with an active participation in credit lending to the segments that are largely left out by the formal banking channels. These include micro, small and medium enterprises, agriculture sector, and other unbanked sectors. Hence, they play a noteworthy role in the last-mile delivery of financial services and overall financial inclusion. Against the backdrop of the recent liquidity crisis, the financial health of selected 15 large NBFCs and the capital requirement regulations towards the sector are examined.

The Misdirected Policy Changes in R&D Tax Incentives

Over the years, the government has provided tax incentives for companies investing in research and development. Since 2016, the policy has seen an overhaul, with some older incentives withdrawn while new ones being introduced. That year, the government launched the patent box regime and tax holidays for innovation-based start-ups. It also reduced income-tax weighted deduction on R&D expenses from 200% to 150%, which was further reduced to 100% in 2020. Recently, the Union Budget 2022–23 saw the withdrawal of a few customs-duty exemptions for R&D. India has seen relatively low investment in R&D, which calls for policy changes. However, the effi cacy of some of these recent changes is questionable.

FDI, GDP and Regional Disparity

Foreign direct investment reveals the tendency to fl ow to the industrial agglomerates. Some scholars express the concern that the skewed distribution of FDI can worsen the regional disparity. This article reveals that FDI has limited and unexpectedly negative effects on the Indian gross domestic product. Hence, the fear that skewed FDI infl ow can worsen regional disparity stands rejected.

Do Machine Learning Techniques Provide Better Macroeconomic Forecasts?

Machine learning techniques are now very common in many spheres, and there is a growing popularity of these approaches in macroeconomic forecasting as well. Are these techniques really useful in the prediction of macroeconomic outcomes? Are they superior in performance compared to their traditional counterparts? We carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature in order to answer these questions. Our analysis suggests that the answers to most of these questions are nuanced and conditional on a number of factors identified in the study.

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