Digitalisation

Technology strategies routinely overlook the marginalised, who demonstrate complicated, non-linear, and unpredictable technological experiences in addition to intangible technological inequalities. Only if we improve our political and sociological understanding of technology can we steer it to work towards genuine modernity and well-being.

The impact of demonetisation on the movement of currency in circulation in India over time is examined. Four different models of currency in circulation are used to estimate these models using weekly data from April 1992 to October 2016. An analysis of out-of-sample forecast performance of these models prior to demonetisation reveals that the series could be forecast well before this event. Out-of-sample forecast errors of these models during the post-demonetisation period are, therefore, interpreted as shocks due to demonetisation. As far as weekly growth rates of the series are concerned, we observe no major change in intra-month seasonality in currency in circulation once the shock due to demonetisation mitigated.