The Supreme Court’s judgment, upholding the constitutional validity of the demonetisation of `500 and `1,000 notes, is legally right but comes too late to be of any appreciable legal interest. It highlights the phenomenon of the Court determining the outcome of a case without actually deciding the case, and raises worrying questions about the abdication of responsibility by the Court.
This article uses a short-term macroeconomic model in Williamson (2009) featuring goods and financial market segmentation to analyse the effect of such a shock in an economy with substantial informality and cash dependence. The households with access to formal financial markets experience an increase in consumption and those without such access experience a decline.
The April–June (2020) quarterly data for the urban sector showed a massive decline in the workforce participation rate and a huge increase in the unemployment rate. Still, the annual average work participation rate rose sharply in 2019–20 compared to the earlier two rounds of the Periodic Labour Force Survey estimates, and the average unemployment rate declined somewhat. Given these patterns, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy data set, despite its own problems, seems to be casting a more realistic picture.
Technology has had a disruptive effect on the delivery of fi nancial services, and adoption of digital solutions could help accelerate fi nancial inclusion. This article creates a road map for digital fi nancial inclusion in India using the framework based on the eight high-level principles of G-20 nations. While evaluating the progress under each one of these principles, the article concludes with policy recommendations both on supply and demand sides to achieve the coveted digital fi nancial inclusion.
The impact of the macroeconomic shock of demonetisation in 2016 on the dividend payout policy of Indian companies is examined. The analyses of 2,157 Indian companies’ data for the period from 2013 to 2018 find that both aggregate dividend payout ratio and the number of companies paying dividends dropped in post-demonetisation years. The results of the dynamic system generalised method of moments show that the long-term target dividend payout ratio declined by 9.31% post demonetisation. The study suggests that major macroeconomic shocks affect the dividend payout decisions of companies.
As the migrant labour exodus unfolded with unrelenting grimness through the summer of 2020, there was frequent mention of how the COVID-19 pandemic had exposed the “invisibility” of migrant labour to Indian planners and policymakers.
The recently published Report on Currency and Finance, 2020–21 of the Reserve Bank of India reviewed the performance of the flexible inflation targeting regime in India. In the light of stylised facts, cross-country experience, and detailed econometric results, the report seemed to suggest that despite several shocks (like demonetisation or introduction of the goods and services tax), a combination of good policy and luck have worked in favour of the success of the FIT regime in India. Going forward, while advocating some nuanced, subtle changes in the operation and administration of the FIT regime, the report called for its continuation as a strategy of monetary policy in India.
Following the announcement of demonetisation on 8 November 2016, India saw the withdrawal of nearly 86% of the cash in circulation. This caused prolonged currency shortages and impacted employment, sales, income, loan payback capacity, savings and by extension, financial inclusion. A survey conducted among two distinct groups in Mumbai and Pune, three months after demonetisation, in April–May 2017, reveals the adverse impact of currency shortages on the incomes and livelihoods of those employed in tiny, informal enterprises. With a decline in the sales in their businesses, their income and savings fell, and so did the demand for credit.
