The Bharatiya Janata Party stormed to success in the 2007 election against a squabbleridden Congress, which failed to take advantage of the popular sentiment there in favour of its programmes. The election result showed that the political ground was shifting in the state with a more mature electorate looking beyond the old formulas of region, caste and religion.
STATE ELECTIONS 2007-08february 7, 2009 EPW Economic & Political Weekly46Himachal Pradesh Elections 2007: A Post-Poll AnalysisRamesh K Chauhan, S N GhoshThe Bharatiya Janata Party stormed to success in the 2007 election against a squabble-ridden Congress, which failed to take advantage of the popular sentiment there in favour of its programmes. The election result showed that the political ground was shifting in the state with a more mature electorate looking beyond the old formulas of region, caste and religion. The outcome of the December 2007 assembly election in Himachal Pradesh was significant in that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) managed to win a majority in the assembly on its own for the first time.1 Whenever there has been a third force in the arena, whether it be the Janata Dal in 1990, the Himachal Vikas Congress in 1998 or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2007, it is the fortunes of the Congress that have suffered more than those of theBJP. Another significant de-velopment was that for the first time the BJP won all the three tribal seats to which polls were held before the 65 other assem-bly constituencies.2 In retrospect, one could blame the Con-gress defeat on many factors. In contrast to the BJP which announced that Prem Kumar Dhumal would be its candidate for the chief minister, the Congress avoided naming anyone. Naming Dhumal as its prime can-didate helped theBJP garner Rajput votes. The Congress was also less successful in managing dissidence within its ranks, while the BJP managed to persuade Shanta Kumar and his followers to join its campaign. The net result was that the Congress failed tocash in on the sentiment there was in favour of its schemes and programmes. Though theBSP won only one seat, it suc-ceeded in securing more than 7% of the vote, damaging the prospects of the Congress in many constituencies. BJP Emerges the Clear WinnerHimachal Pradesh witnessed a bi-party contest in 2007. Though the BSP emerged a distant third, it did not do enough to dent the bipolarity that has marked politics in the state. As Table 1 (p 47) shows, the Congress lost 20 seats and 2% of the votes it had polled in 2003 while theBJP gained more than 8% of the vote. The gains made by the BSP and the BJP indicated that a major shift had occurred in the state over the last five years. Overall, the BJP gained significantly in all four regions of the state whereasin earlier elections strong regionalfactors such as upper and lower (Shimla versus Kangra), and old and new (old areas versus merged areas) used to sway the electorate. Given the small size of the state, this could mean that in the long run, internal regions may prove to be less important politically than concrete issues to do with the econo-my and performance of the government. The findings of a post-election survey3 give us an idea of how voters viewed the performance of the Congress government and the factors that might have influenced who they voted for. Though the propor-tion of respondents dissatisfied with the Virbhadra Singh government was not very high (about 19%), people thought that the rise in prices and unemployment were critical issues in the election. However, there was no overall condemnation of the incumbent government as is clear from Table 2 (p 47). The voters in the state were divided be-tween the two parties in almost equal pro-portion. The post-poll survey shows that while gender did not make much of a dif-ference to voter preference, the BJP was clearly ahead among the young and the educated. Moreover, it received the sup-port of the upper castes and Rajputs. The Congress was backed by the other back-ward classes (OBCs), particularly the non-Gaderia OBCs, and the scheduled castes. However, one in every five scheduled caste voters and one in every five non-Gaderia OBC voters voted for non-Congress and non-BJP candidates. This adversely affected the chances of the Congress. Gender-wise, there was little difference between the voting pattern of men and women in Himachal Pradesh. The figures in Table 4 (p 47) indicate that both among men and women 44% voted for the BJP and 39% for the Congress. This meant that in terms of gender, the votes for the two main political parties remained almost the same. In the opinion of the survey’s respondents, 53% males and 47% females voted for the Congress. Almost similar trend was ob-served among male and female votersfor theBJP, 54% and 46%, respectively. Table 5 (p 47) indicates that the BJP was more popular among voters younger than 25 years (49%) compared to the Congress (35%). This was the case among middle aged voters (36 to 45 years) as well. In the Ramesh K Chauhan (rkchpu@gmail.com) is at the Department of Political Science, Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla. S N Ghosh (snghpu@gmail.com) is at the Department of Psychology, Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla.
STATE ELECTIONS 2007-08Economic & Political Weekly EPW february 7, 20094746 to 55 age group, the BJP secured 40% of the votes compared to 35% for the Congress. However, the Congress was more popular in the 26-35 years category and among elderly voters (56 years and above). Among the younger voters, the Congress secured 42% of the votes com-pared to the BJP’s 41%, and in the senior category, it fared better by getting 44% of the votes compared to the BJP’s 42%.The survey reveals that the Congress and the BJP were tied among non-literate voters (Table 6). But the BJP (48%) had an advantageover the Congress (38%) among voters witha higher education and among matriculates(46%). The Congress (43%) has an edge over the BJP (38%) among those with a primaryeducation.Among theBJP’sbackers, the maximum support camefrom the higher educatedclass (36%), followed by matriculates (32%). TheCongress had equal support among the non-literate and primaryeducated and slightly better support among matriculates and the college educated. Caste played an important role in the 2007 election. According to the survey, a majority of the Brahmin and Rajput voters chose the BJP (Table 7). The Congress was popular among the OBCs and dalits, who constitute approximately 36% of the pop-ulation in the state (Sharma 1999; 2003). Among Brahmins, 68.1% voted for the BJP and 26% for the Congress. The Rajputs are the single largest caste (28%) in Himachal Pradesh. Among them, 46% voted for the BJP and 40% for the Congress. A reverse trend was observed in the case of scheduled caste and OBC voters. Among scheduled caste voters, 47% supported the Congress and 33% voted for the BJP. Among the OBCs, 44% voted for the Congress and 30% for the BJP. However, the voting pattern among tribals showed that they more or less supported both parties equally.Despite having a national image, the Congress and theBJP in Himachal Pradesh Table 1: A Clean Sweep for the BJP Seats TurnoutCongress BJP BSP Other Parties (%) Seats Votes Seats Votes Seats Votes Seats Votes Won Swing % Swing Won Swing % Swing Won Swing % Swing Won Swing % SwingEntirestate 6871.523 -20 38.9 -2.1 41 +25 43.8 +8.4 1 +1 7.3 +6.6 3 -6 10.1-12.8Shimla 18 71.0 9 -2 42.7 +1.8 8 +5 38.7 +8.6 0 NIL 4.1 +4.0 1 -3 14.5 -14.4Hamirpur 14 69.9 4 -3 37.9 0.0 10 +4 49.8 +9.9 0 NIL 5.8 +4.0 0 -1 6.5 -13.9Kangra 21 71.1 7 -8 36.4 -9.4 12 +8 42.8 +4.5 1 +1 8.7 +8.0 1 -1 12.1 -3.1Mandi 15 74.1 3 -7 39.0 +1.2 11 +8 45.2 +11.9 0 NIL 10.1 +9.8 1 -1 5.7 -23.0Source: CSDS Data Unit.Table 2: No Major Difference between the Congress and the BJP on Most IssuesBetter for… BJP Congress No OpinionDevelopment of the state 32 38 30Curbing corruption 33 27 40Controlling price rise 26 29 45Providing basic amenities 26 29 45Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.Table 3: Both the Congress and the BJP Governments Perceived To Be SimilarOpinion on Better Government %Congress 29BJP 27Both equally bad 8Both equally good 21No opinion 15Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.Table 4: Vote by Gender CongressBJPOthersNMale 394417433Female 394417380N denotes number. Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.Table 5: Vote by Age CongressBJPOthersNUp to 25 years 35 49 16 13426-35 years 42 41 17 22836-45 years 36 49 15 16046-55 years 35 40 25 13356 years and above 44 42 14 158N denotes number.Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.Table 7: Vote by Caste Group CongressBJPOthersNBrahmin 26 62 13102Rajput 404614331Other upper castes 43 48 10 42Gaderia 24364050Other OBC 44 30 26 84Scheduled castes 47 33 20 172Others 3462432N denotes number.Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.bank more on state-specific issues. This has lent a regional character to these two par-ties in the state. The emergence of a two-party system sharing power alternatively since 1990 has provided political stability to the state (Chauhan and Ghosh 2004). The result has been an overall socio-eco-nomic and political transformation. The findings of the survey indicated that the people are sensitive about the image of their leaders, political corruption, govern-ance and development. Over the years, these issues have overtaken the issues based on emotions, region, and caste raised during earlier elections by the Con-gress and the BJP. This can also be attrib-uted largely to a noticeable growth in lit-eracy and awareness. The functioning of political parties and their leadership is thus consistently scrutinised by the elec-torate, posing a stiff challenge to them. Notes 1 In 1990, the BJP had a pre-election alliance with the Janata Dal, and in 1998, it entered into a post-election alliance with the Himachal Vikas Congress. 2 The two-phased elections were held on 14 November and 19 December 2007 after 56 years on the recom-mendations of the Election Commission of India due to a writ petition filed in the Himachal Pradesh High Court (Thakar Singh Bharmouri and Others vs the Election Commission of India and Others). 3 The analysis is based on data collected from a post-poll survey conducted in the state six months after the elections were held in 2007. The survey was conducted among a sample of 1,086 respond-ents randomly selected from 60 polling stations in 15 assembly constituencies. The assembly con-stituencies were randomly drawn using the prob-ability proportionate to size (PPS) procedure and matched with past demographic and electoral profiles. The fieldwork of the post-poll survey was conducted during June 2008. ReferencesKumar, S and R K Chauhan (2003): “Himachal Pradesh Elections 2003: Understanding Complex Choices”, Economic & Political Weekly, Vol XXXVIII, No 28.Sharma, T R (1999): “Local Configurations and Na-tional Parties in Himachal Pradesh”,Economic & Political Weekly, Vol XXXIV, Nos 34-35. – (2003): “Himachal Pradesh: Two Party Competi-tion in a Small State”, Journal of Indian School of Political Economy, Vol XV, Nos 1-2.Chauhan, Ramesh K and S N Ghosh (2004): “Himachal Pradesh: Bipolar Contest”,Economic & Political Weekly, Vol XXXIX, No 51.Table 6: Vote by Education Party Voted for Assembly Election 2007 Congress BJP Others NNon literate 40 40 21 157Up to primary 43 38 19 146Up to matriculation 38 46 16 243College and above 38 48 15 267N denotes number.Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.
STATE ELECTIONS 2007-08february 7, 2009 EPW Economic & Political Weekly46Himachal Pradesh Elections 2007: A Post-Poll AnalysisRamesh K Chauhan, S N GhoshThe Bharatiya Janata Party stormed to success in the 2007 election against a squabble-ridden Congress, which failed to take advantage of the popular sentiment there in favour of its programmes. The election result showed that the political ground was shifting in the state with a more mature electorate looking beyond the old formulas of region, caste and religion. The outcome of the December 2007 assembly election in Himachal Pradesh was significant in that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) managed to win a majority in the assembly on its own for the first time.1 Whenever there has been a third force in the arena, whether it be the Janata Dal in 1990, the Himachal Vikas Congress in 1998 or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2007, it is the fortunes of the Congress that have suffered more than those of theBJP. Another significant de-velopment was that for the first time the BJP won all the three tribal seats to which polls were held before the 65 other assem-bly constituencies.2 In retrospect, one could blame the Con-gress defeat on many factors. In contrast to the BJP which announced that Prem Kumar Dhumal would be its candidate for the chief minister, the Congress avoided naming anyone. Naming Dhumal as its prime can-didate helped theBJP garner Rajput votes. The Congress was also less successful in managing dissidence within its ranks, while the BJP managed to persuade Shanta Kumar and his followers to join its campaign. The net result was that the Congress failed tocash in on the sentiment there was in favour of its schemes and programmes. Though theBSP won only one seat, it suc-ceeded in securing more than 7% of the vote, damaging the prospects of the Congress in many constituencies. BJP Emerges the Clear WinnerHimachal Pradesh witnessed a bi-party contest in 2007. Though the BSP emerged a distant third, it did not do enough to dent the bipolarity that has marked politics in the state. As Table 1 (p 47) shows, the Congress lost 20 seats and 2% of the votes it had polled in 2003 while theBJP gained more than 8% of the vote. The gains made by the BSP and the BJP indicated that a major shift had occurred in the state over the last five years. Overall, the BJP gained significantly in all four regions of the state whereasin earlier elections strong regionalfactors such as upper and lower (Shimla versus Kangra), and old and new (old areas versus merged areas) used to sway the electorate. Given the small size of the state, this could mean that in the long run, internal regions may prove to be less important politically than concrete issues to do with the econo-my and performance of the government. The findings of a post-election survey3 give us an idea of how voters viewed the performance of the Congress government and the factors that might have influenced who they voted for. Though the propor-tion of respondents dissatisfied with the Virbhadra Singh government was not very high (about 19%), people thought that the rise in prices and unemployment were critical issues in the election. However, there was no overall condemnation of the incumbent government as is clear from Table 2 (p 47). The voters in the state were divided be-tween the two parties in almost equal pro-portion. The post-poll survey shows that while gender did not make much of a dif-ference to voter preference, the BJP was clearly ahead among the young and the educated. Moreover, it received the sup-port of the upper castes and Rajputs. The Congress was backed by the other back-ward classes (OBCs), particularly the non-Gaderia OBCs, and the scheduled castes. However, one in every five scheduled caste voters and one in every five non-Gaderia OBC voters voted for non-Congress and non-BJP candidates. This adversely affected the chances of the Congress. Gender-wise, there was little difference between the voting pattern of men and women in Himachal Pradesh. The figures in Table 4 (p 47) indicate that both among men and women 44% voted for the BJP and 39% for the Congress. This meant that in terms of gender, the votes for the two main political parties remained almost the same. In the opinion of the survey’s respondents, 53% males and 47% females voted for the Congress. Almost similar trend was ob-served among male and female votersfor theBJP, 54% and 46%, respectively. Table 5 (p 47) indicates that the BJP was more popular among voters younger than 25 years (49%) compared to the Congress (35%). This was the case among middle aged voters (36 to 45 years) as well. In the Ramesh K Chauhan (rkchpu@gmail.com) is at the Department of Political Science, Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla. S N Ghosh (snghpu@gmail.com) is at the Department of Psychology, Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla. 
STATE ELECTIONS 2007-08Economic & Political Weekly EPW february 7, 20094746 to 55 age group, the BJP secured 40% of the votes compared to 35% for the Congress. However, the Congress was more popular in the 26-35 years category and among elderly voters (56 years and above). Among the younger voters, the Congress secured 42% of the votes com-pared to the BJP’s 41%, and in the senior category, it fared better by getting 44% of the votes compared to the BJP’s 42%.The survey reveals that the Congress and the BJP were tied among non-literate voters (Table 6). But the BJP (48%) had an advantageover the Congress (38%) among voters witha higher education and among matriculates(46%). The Congress (43%) has an edge over the BJP (38%) among those with a primaryeducation.Among theBJP’sbackers, the maximum support camefrom the higher educatedclass (36%), followed by matriculates (32%). TheCongress had equal support among the non-literate and primaryeducated and slightly better support among matriculates and the college educated. Caste played an important role in the 2007 election. According to the survey, a majority of the Brahmin and Rajput voters chose the BJP (Table 7). The Congress was popular among the OBCs and dalits, who constitute approximately 36% of the pop-ulation in the state (Sharma 1999; 2003). Among Brahmins, 68.1% voted for the BJP and 26% for the Congress. The Rajputs are the single largest caste (28%) in Himachal Pradesh. Among them, 46% voted for the BJP and 40% for the Congress. A reverse trend was observed in the case of scheduled caste and OBC voters. Among scheduled caste voters, 47% supported the Congress and 33% voted for the BJP. Among the OBCs, 44% voted for the Congress and 30% for the BJP. However, the voting pattern among tribals showed that they more or less supported both parties equally.Despite having a national image, the Congress and theBJP in Himachal Pradesh Table 1: A Clean Sweep for the BJP Seats TurnoutCongress BJP BSP Other Parties (%) Seats Votes Seats Votes Seats Votes Seats Votes Won Swing % Swing Won Swing % Swing Won Swing % Swing Won Swing % SwingEntirestate 6871.523 -20 38.9 -2.1 41 +25 43.8 +8.4 1 +1 7.3 +6.6 3 -6 10.1-12.8Shimla 18 71.0 9 -2 42.7 +1.8 8 +5 38.7 +8.6 0 NIL 4.1 +4.0 1 -3 14.5 -14.4Hamirpur 14 69.9 4 -3 37.9 0.0 10 +4 49.8 +9.9 0 NIL 5.8 +4.0 0 -1 6.5 -13.9Kangra 21 71.1 7 -8 36.4 -9.4 12 +8 42.8 +4.5 1 +1 8.7 +8.0 1 -1 12.1 -3.1Mandi 15 74.1 3 -7 39.0 +1.2 11 +8 45.2 +11.9 0 NIL 10.1 +9.8 1 -1 5.7 -23.0Source: CSDS Data Unit.Table 2: No Major Difference between the Congress and the BJP on Most IssuesBetter for… BJP Congress No OpinionDevelopment of the state 32 38 30Curbing corruption 33 27 40Controlling price rise 26 29 45Providing basic amenities 26 29 45Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.Table 3: Both the Congress and the BJP Governments Perceived To Be SimilarOpinion on Better Government %Congress 29BJP 27Both equally bad 8Both equally good 21No opinion 15Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.Table 4: Vote by Gender CongressBJPOthersNMale 394417433Female 394417380N denotes number. Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.Table 5: Vote by Age CongressBJPOthersNUp to 25 years 35 49 16 13426-35 years 42 41 17 22836-45 years 36 49 15 16046-55 years 35 40 25 13356 years and above 44 42 14 158N denotes number.Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.Table 7: Vote by Caste Group CongressBJPOthersNBrahmin 26 62 13102Rajput 404614331Other upper castes 43 48 10 42Gaderia 24364050Other OBC 44 30 26 84Scheduled castes 47 33 20 172Others 3462432N denotes number.Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.bank more on state-specific issues. This has lent a regional character to these two par-ties in the state. The emergence of a two-party system sharing power alternatively since 1990 has provided political stability to the state (Chauhan and Ghosh 2004). The result has been an overall socio-eco-nomic and political transformation. The findings of the survey indicated that the people are sensitive about the image of their leaders, political corruption, govern-ance and development. Over the years, these issues have overtaken the issues based on emotions, region, and caste raised during earlier elections by the Con-gress and the BJP. This can also be attrib-uted largely to a noticeable growth in lit-eracy and awareness. The functioning of political parties and their leadership is thus consistently scrutinised by the elec-torate, posing a stiff challenge to them. Notes 1 In 1990, the BJP had a pre-election alliance with the Janata Dal, and in 1998, it entered into a post-election alliance with the Himachal Vikas Congress. 2 The two-phased elections were held on 14 November and 19 December 2007 after 56 years on the recom-mendations of the Election Commission of India due to a writ petition filed in the Himachal Pradesh High Court (Thakar Singh Bharmouri and Others vs the Election Commission of India and Others). 3 The analysis is based on data collected from a post-poll survey conducted in the state six months after the elections were held in 2007. The survey was conducted among a sample of 1,086 respond-ents randomly selected from 60 polling stations in 15 assembly constituencies. The assembly con-stituencies were randomly drawn using the prob-ability proportionate to size (PPS) procedure and matched with past demographic and electoral profiles. The fieldwork of the post-poll survey was conducted during June 2008. ReferencesKumar, S and R K Chauhan (2003): “Himachal Pradesh Elections 2003: Understanding Complex Choices”, Economic & Political Weekly, Vol XXXVIII, No 28.Sharma, T R (1999): “Local Configurations and Na-tional Parties in Himachal Pradesh”,Economic & Political Weekly, Vol XXXIV, Nos 34-35. – (2003): “Himachal Pradesh: Two Party Competi-tion in a Small State”, Journal of Indian School of Political Economy, Vol XV, Nos 1-2.Chauhan, Ramesh K and S N Ghosh (2004): “Himachal Pradesh: Bipolar Contest”,Economic & Political Weekly, Vol XXXIX, No 51.Table 6: Vote by Education Party Voted for Assembly Election 2007 Congress BJP Others NNon literate 40 40 21 157Up to primary 43 38 19 146Up to matriculation 38 46 16 243College and above 38 48 15 267N denotes number.Source: CSDS Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election Study, Post-Poll – 2008, Weighted Data Set.
