India's Medium-Term Growth Prospects

This paper reviews India's recent growth performance and assesses medium-term growth prospects in the light of relevant factors. These factors include the likely evolution of fiscal and savings-investment imbalances, financial sector performance, the role of the external sector, economic reforms and productivity, infrastructure constraints, problems in agriculture, the likely developments in labour supply and demand and governmental performance. The paper concludes that it might be reasonable to expect growth in the next five years to fluctuate in the range of 4 to 6 per cent, perhaps averaging close to 5 per cent, provided there is no major economic or financial crisis. This is much lower than the 6.7 per cent growth achieved in the Eighth Plan period and far lower than the 8 per cent mooted in the Tenth Plan.