Puzzle of Declining Rural Foodgrains Consumption

The unabated decline in per capita consumption of foodgrains in India during the past few decades has become a matter of concern. India’s average per capita consumption of foodgrains being well below the international level and malnutrition being rampant, it is tempting to call this secular decline (both absolutely and as a share of total expenditure) a ‘puzzle’. Barring some preference-based explanations [e g, Kumar and Mathur 1996] we do not have adequate understanding of the process which causes Indian people, notwithstanding a significant section of them suffering from hunger and malnutrition, to devote a progressively lower proportion of their expenditure on such necessary items as foodgrains. While researchers concerned with social welfare have generally viewed the phenomenon with alarms, C H Hanumantha Rao appears to have discovered a brighter side of the process. In his recent article ‘Declining Demand for Foodgrains in Rural India: Causes and Implications’ (EPW, January 22, 2000), he stressed a set of factors on account of which “the decline in per capita consumption of foodgrains...would be associated with improvement in the welfare of the rural consumers in general”. The purpose of this note is to show that his case is far from promising.

NSS household expenditure data, as reported by Rao show that between 1972-73 and 1993-94, cereal consumption per capita declined in both rural and urban areas, the decline being more pronounced in rural areas. Per capita cereal consumption per month declined from 15.26 kg to 13.4 kg in rural areas and from 11.24 kg to 10.63 kg in urban areas. The decline was experienced in all expenditure classes considered by him (viz, bottom 30 per cent, middle 40 per cent and top 30 per cent) except for the bottom 30 per cent of rural population for whom a marginal increase from 11.36 kg to 11.76 kg was recorded. In what sense could this decline, or part of it, be welfare improving?