Global Tea Scenario 2001 AD

V N Reddy This paper examines global demand for and the supply of tea by estimating semi-log trends separately using data of the recent past, 1974 to 1988, on the area under cultivation of tea, production, exports and the retention of tea for domestic consumption. From the semi-tog trend fits, the supply of tea and demand for tea have been estimated for specified future years 1993, 1996 and 2001. The findings indicate that global demand for tea exceeds global supply of tea and this gap will increase over time, and as a result of which tea prices will rise. Country-wise phenomena reveal that some of the countries like Kenya, Sri Lanka and China are exporting tea at uneconomical prices possibly to meet their foreign exchange requirements. At the global level, there appears to be no relation between the annual tea export volume and its annual export price per kg. Added to this, there is sluggish growth in the area under cultivation of tea. Hence, global supply of tea may have to be increased by increasing the productivity of tea in order to meet both the domestic and export demands.