ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Budget Forecasts of Central Government Revenue and Expenditure-A Test of Rational Expectation

This paper evaluates the forecasting efficiency of the central government budget and revised budget estimates. It is found that neither the budget nor revised budget estimates of revenue and expenditure satisfy the criteria of rational expectations of forecasting nor even unbiasedness. There is very little evidence of improvement in the efficiency of budgeting over time.

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