Growth and Instability in Foodgrains Production-An Inter-State Analysis

Production An Inter-State Analysis S Mahendradev Inter-state analysis of foodgrain production taking into account fluctuations weather-adjusted growth rates, the relationship between growth and instability is of importance for understanding the nature of food security at the regional level. This paper, begins with an examination of unadjusted and weather-adjusted growth rates in foodgrains production, reviews trends in instability using a moving period approach and analyses the factors influencing interstate disparities in growth and instability and the consequences of these differences on rural poverty Introduction THIS paper which deals with an inter-state time series analysis of foodgrains production for the period 1960-61 through 1984-85, examines a) Unadjusted and weather adjusted growth rates, b) Trends in instability; c) Relationship between growth and instability The following issues have prompted us to undertake the present study It is well known that weather, particularly rainfall, plays an important role in Indian agriculture since around 70 per cent of the cultivated area is dependent on rainfall and the dry land technology which is being developed in the research stations is yet to reach the fields on any significant scale However, many research studies on Indian agriculture have ignored the weather factor while estimating growth rates in crop production Although some studies have examined the relationship between rainfall and crop production at the all India level, no such analysis has been made at the regional level ' I he present study estimates, apart from the usual unadjusted trend growth rates, weather-adjusted trend growth rates for foodgrains production for each of the 17 major states.