Articles by Santosh Mehrotra

The Social Security Code, 2020 and the rules framed thereunder raise a number of issues regarding the working of the new legislation, which is the focus of the article. A major problem is the complex provisions that allow for dual authorities and overlapping of zones. Integration of the new code with the ongoing social security programmes and financing of new ones are other issues discussed.

The sustained rates of China's economic and industrial growth, along with the country's ability to become the world's factory, can be attributed, at least in part, to its educational reforms. China was able to realise the potential benefits of its demographic dividend by prudent reforms in technical, vocational education and training system. Policymakers in India are grappling with a similar set of constraints and it is crucial to undertake critical reforms in our skill development ecosystem to be able to realise the demographic dividend that is available till about 2040. The Chinese system, its major features, the periodic reforms undertaken, its financing, and the participation of industry, are discussed here. Further, the similarities and distinctions with the Indian system are highlighted along with key lessons from the Chinese experience.

This paper explores employment trends in India since the mid-1990s based on study of various rounds of National Sample Survey unit level data. The major findings are of a structural transformation with an absolute fall in agricultural employment and a rise in non-agricultural employment, increasing participation in education, decline in child labour, mechanisation of agriculture and rising living standards in rural areas due to a growth in real wages which led to a decline in workforce, most of which was of women leaving the workforce. A fall in demand for manufacturing exports and increasing capital intensity also resulted in a decline in manufacturing employment during 2004-05 - 2009-10. The paper estimates that approximately 17 million jobs per annum need to be created in non-agriculture during 2012-17. Based on these estimates, the paper makes policy suggestions to increase non-agricultural employment in India.

Creation of decent jobs outside agriculture is one of the biggest challenges that confront policymakers trying to achieve "faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth". The Indian economy grew at unprecedented rates during the Tenth (2002-07) and Eleventh (2007-12) Five-Year Plan periods, but it has been characterised by jobless growth and informalisation of jobs in the organised sector between 2004-05 and 2009-10. However, findings from the latest employment and unemployment survey of the National Sample Survey Office (2011-12) seem to suggest a reversal of joblessness with a significant increase in non-agricultural employment. The paper tries to assess the employment intensity of output growth through an examination of employment elasticity, and potential for employment generation during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2012-17).

This paper analyses employment trends and addresses the problem of creating decent and productive employment in the non-agricultural sector during the first decade of the 21st century. Its primary interest is to examine the transition from informal employment in the unorganised sector towards formal employment in the non-agricultural organised sector. There has been a slight structural shift in employment away from agriculture towards the non-manufacturing sector. An interesting dimension about this transformation is the rising employment in enterprises employing 20 or more workers and a decline in employment in enterprises employing less than six workers. The second half of the decade (characterised by high growth rates) witnessed a decline in employment in the manufacturing sector, while there was stagnation in services sector employment. With the rise in participation in education (in particular female education), it is most likely that a larger number of educated youth, especially women, will be joining the labour force in future years, and given the fact that the highest open unemployment rate is among educated youth, this calls for more proactive policies towards employment creation in organised manufacturing and services sectors.